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PolicyOracle, an online information market by SYMPHONY project

10 July 2015

Within the SYMPHONY European research project we are implementing an online information market called PolicyOracle to forecast the outcomes of key economic, energy and environmental issues.

PolicyOracle is built around the concept of "wisdom of crowds": information aggregated from a group of people is typically more accurate than that of individuals.

How PolicyOracle works

It is like a virtual stock market where you can buy or sell contracts that represent outcomes of future events using play money. PolicyOracle is an 'information market' because the prices of the contracts contain 'information signals'; the highest the price of a contract the more probable is the event it represents. Consider for example the question of "Will the unemployment in Europe be increased at the end of the month?". You can invest play money at a YES contract if you believe that it will increase or at a NO contract otherwise. If you predict the correct answer you earn play money and you become a better forecaster! Policy makers monitor the prices of contracts: when they see a high value of the YES contract then they know that they have to take measures as unemployment is expected to increase!

You are invited to register in PolicyOracle in the following URL: http://experts.policyoracle.com/.

Express your expectations on policy matters and help European policy makers understand what the future holds.

Thank you for your participation!